By Paul Reitano
It was a Friday night, early winter of 2020, and I was at the Carriage Barn Arts Center; a fundraiser for my daughter’s nursery school. My wife had lured me out of the house with the promise of “heavy” passed appetizers (potential pigs in the blanket). I squeezed into my only pair of ironed pants and prepared myself to outbid every other dad at the accompanying auction for the sole miniature chair signed by my daughter’s pre-k teacher. As I waited in line for my third, and final High Noon – a bearded man, Julian, came up to me. We got to chatting, and he told me something shocking; that this may be the last party I go to for a very long time. What a buzzkill, I thought. He started talking about friends in China and virology and I laughed him off as just a very kind, very confused, smart person. A few weeks later the world came to a complete stop and we all started spraying down our groceries. Needless to say, Julian is still a lot smarter than I am. And yes, I did get that miniature chair. And no, it wasn’t worth the three hundred dollars.
Q. Julian, what have you eaten today?
A. Today was not good.
Q: What happened?
A: I just got back from vacation and had plans to get back on the diet. What I’ve discovered is if you’ve been eating poorly, it continues to build on itself and…
Q: Just tell me, Julian.
A: Keep in mind – I hadn’t really eaten up until this point.
Q: Just say it.
A: So, this morning I went downstairs – I went into the freezer and I got an ice cream bar.
Q: One of those little ones from Trader Joes?
A: No, it was full size.
Q: Big deal, you had an ice cream bar. There’s nothing wrong with that. You’re a good man.
A: I had three.
Q: You had three ice cream bars today? It’s only 1:30!
A: I realize that. And that’s all I’ve eaten today. That and three cups of coffee.
Q: Why stop at three? What keeps you from eating the entire box?
A: I control myself through inventory. The ice cream bars are all gone. So, they are no longer a threat to me.
Q: But your beautiful children – now their ice cream is gone, too.
A: No, theirs is still here. I’m not into their ice cream.
Q: Julian, you have both my admiration and my sympathy. Let’s move on – what do you do for a living?
A: I’m a financial advisor.
Q: Should I take all of my money out of the market right now?
A: Yes.
Q: Really?
A: Probably safer places to be for the next six months. All the money that was being splashed into the economy during the Biden administration is being stopped. That’s effective austerity. Immigration is being stopped, that’s less workers. Inflation is starting to rise just as growth is slowing. That’s four things stocks don’t like.
Q: One moment, I’m just going to log in to my Vanguard here…
A: You should probably seek a second opinion. I could be wrong.
Q: No, I very much like first opinions only. It helps me make rash decisions.
A: Ok, but people who do what I do can always be wrong, it’s-
Q: In addition to helping me cash out my portfolio, you’re also a total history buff. How did that happen?
A: I started thinking about history more as it applied to my work. I was constantly trying to find historical analogues to help me understand what’s currently going on in the market and on a broader scale.
Q: Remember to speak slowly to me, Julian. I was a theater major.
A: Ok, so if lifetime experience for me is about 40 years. If I use only that information in order to try and understand my current environment, I am only going to be able to look back on those years to make my decisions. That’s where the history part of it becomes really cool. If you broaden your viewpoint – you can find a better analogue to what’s currently going on and make better, less subjective decisions.
Q: What can history tell us about what’s going on right now?
A: There’s a great book called the Fourth Turning by Neil Howe. The Fourth Turning is a theory of history that views time as cyclical, driven by generational shifts occurring roughly every 20-25 years across a full cycle of about 80-100 years. The theory is that these “turnings” follow a predictable pattern, with the Fourth Turning being a period of intense crisis that resolves the tensions of the previous three, leading to societal transformation. It frames history as a recurring interplay of generational dynamics, with each cycle ending in a dramatic upheaval that resets the social order.
Q: So you’re telling me we’re in the Fourth Turning?
A: Pretty much.
Q: Julian, do you ever have good news?
A: One of my problems is…I have a weak social filter.
Q: I feel like this may be the wrong time to ask what you like to eat in New Canaan, but I’m going to do it anyway.
A: My wife and I have lunch dates on Fridays and lately we’ve been going to Blackbird.
Q: Good sushi there.
A: Yes, but what I love is their Jalapina Sour. It’s Jalapeño tequila, Pineapple brine, Lime and Pineapple juice. The piece of picked pineapple on top is the best garnish for any drink I’ve ever had.
Q: I’ll go get one with you if you promise not to tell me about the end of the world.
A: It’s a deal.
