By John Engel
It is as if we began the Fall Season with a starter pistol on Labor Day. Buyers and sellers are feeling a newfound urgency to enter the market.
Last week we listed an in-town renovated antique for $2.5 million. Over 30 groups made appointments last weekend and there were multiple offers when the dust settled. The short Fall season is upon us and buyers are encouraged by falling rates and economic data despite the uncertainty that comes with a presidential election.
This week we have another renovated antique coming on for the same price, $2.5 million on a quiet private lane near the schools. Will lightning strike twice? Yes. We know there are 29+ buyers out there for it. A classic saltbox with 12-over-12 windows, exposed beams, original wide board floors, updated with an open floor plan and a new kitchen; is it fair to expect the same response? Yes, I think so. It doesn’t have a pool, but it has a 2-bedroom cottage and a two-story artist studio on the property. Buyers are responding to turn-key solutions. Steps from Waveny Park and three schools, I think the combination of sleek modernism with rustic charm is a recipe for success.
To predict New Canaan prices without knowing something about our immediately adjacent alternatives: Darien, Stamford and North Stamford. As those markets strengthen, so does our own.
In this first graph we see the North Stamford market has had inventory levels around 45 single family homes since late 2022, currently at 44 and 18% above this point last year. The broader Stamford market, with a median price point in the 600’s has seen a decline of 9% of available inventory in the same period and it is having an impact on North Stamford prices.
North Stamford single family sales in the first half had a median closing price of $1,020,000, up 9.3% year over year, the highest ever. In the first half of 2024 houses on average sold for 101.3% of list price and cumulative days on market was just 20 days. Now, at the end of August, inventory in North Stamford in the $1.575-$2.4 million band remains extremely low, up 57% from a year ago to only 11 homes, helping to fuel strong competition for available homes.
Should you list this Fall or want to wait until next Spring? The Fall Market starts now, and is strong at all levels. The end of the season probably bumps up against the Election in early November, typically a month of decreased activity. We are seeing less impact this time around. We’ve seen a surge of activity this week since Labor Day. Anyone seeking those buyers who are looking to close this year is listing in September through early October. It’s hard to say what the Spring Market will look like. Rates may be lower, and demand will stay strong, but lower rates will free up new inventory, allowing some of sellers to finally make the move.
New data from Apollo shows the median age of all homebuyers is 49, up from 31 in 1981 despite the fact that the age of first-time homebuyers has risen by only 6 years over that 43 year time frame. What conclusions can we draw from this data? It’s the “Silver Tsunami” If the first-time homebuyers only account for one third of the increase, the balance must be coming from elderly repeat buyers who now represent a majority of the market and who now have more housing options. My parents are an example, downsizing 3 times since then: into a New Canaan condo when I left college, moving across town to a townhouse ten years later, and downsizing a third time into a one-bedroom condo of less than 1000 feet, walkable to everywhere. I am sure every realtor in town has at least two senior citizens looking for a nice condo in the downtown with few or no steps. Right now, except for The Vue, there is only one condo available below $2 million forcing many of New Canaanites to expand our searches for seniors beyond New Canaan.
Timing. It’s very difficult to time a sale and a purchase to coincide perfectly. According to the National Association of Realtors 53% of repeat buyers cited using the proceeds from the sale of a primary residence to buy their next home. Most people sell first and in a market of limited inventory secure a short-term rental until the right house comes available. The possible purchase of 100 Avalon units by the New Canaan Housing Authority, one of New Canaan’s only short-term housing options could exacerbate this problem as there are no other short term rentals available in town.
Notes from the Monday meeting: the 5-year outlook for the economy remains strong with meaningful appreciation in the housing market. We are on track for 4.8% shelter appreciation nationally and continuing as much as 20% over the next 5 years. Recent job estimates have been revised downward by between 350k and 700k and this makes a strong argument for cutting rates.
The New Canaan Board of Realtors is convening a meeting on Thursday morning, Sept 19 “to discuss the future of the MLS” They recently sold the building on Grove Street. That’s causing some to wonder if more drastic changes are coming. Note, the Greenwich MLS says that 50% of their listings are not found on SmartMLS. This results from the fact that they require member firms to list all listings on the Greenwich MLS. Many of those firms choose to list on only the one service, and since those listiings feed Realtor.com and Zillow they’re covered. Not so in New Canaan. The New Canaan board does not require members to list, and this policy has resulted in an incomplete picture of the New Canaan market. I am hoping that the meeting on September 19 is the beginning of a strong new chapter for NCBOR and NCMLS.
John Engel is a Realtor on the Engel Team at Douglas Elliman and he is ordering 2000 more daffodils along with 500 tulip from Colorblends.com in Bridgeport (to save on shipping). Daffodils are deer-proof and they multiply. He puts them in with a big cordless drill and 3 foot augur. Consider planting bulbs is fun on a crisp fall day.
