By John Engel
We divided 15 markets into 4 groups 1. High-End 2. Cities 3. North of the Parkway and 4. Coastal Neighborhoods to see what comparative conclusions we might draw from their performance these last 3 years.
Greenwich – UNDERPERFORMING.
Median price is $1.75m, more or less flat since mid-2021. When compared to the peer group Greenwich is underperforming in all categories: inventory growth (-32.7%), price growth (0%), percentage of list price (99.1%). While price per foot is still highest ($613) it has grown the least in 3 years and over 1 year (+3.4%)
Darien – RECOVERING.
Median price is $1.91m, up 13% in the last year after poor price appreciation in the period 2021 to 2023, finally pulling ahead of New Canaan at this time last year. With only 41 homes on the market, less than half that of its rivals (Greenwich 99, New Canaan 88, Westport 113) expect more bidding wars causing prices to continue to rise here. Darien has the 2nd highest median price per foot in Connecticut ($581), consistently ahead of New Canaan ($493) and Westport ($505) for the last 3 years. Darien leads her peers in % of List Price, averaging 102% further supporting the argument of a market seriously out of balance.
Westport – OVERPERFORMING.
Median price ($1.925) has led the peer group since mid 2022 when it passed New Canaan, then Darien, and then Greenwich. It’s 351 closed sales leads the peer group ahead of Greenwich (347) which is amazing considering it is less than half as large a town. For the last 3 years the number of closed sales in Westport and Greenwich has been roughly equal. New Canaan (283) and Darien (247) are similarly sized with Westport and Greenwich way behind.
New Canaan – CONSISTENTLY PERFORMING.
What is distinctive about New Canaan is it is the only one in the peer group to not experience a correction in the past 4 years, rising consistently since January 2020. Median price ($1.80m) is up 8.0% in the last year. Price per foot is up 8.6%. The Median Percent of Last List Price has been 100% since Jan. 2022. The 88 houses on the market are 22.1% fewer than this time last year. While month’s-supply of inventory is the same as a year ago, it was rising and now month’s-supply is falling throughout the peer group.
Wilton – UNDERPERFORMING
Median price in Wilton is only $1.00m, growing 4.9% in the past year and only growing by 20% over the last 10 years. Wilton is trading at a 45% discount to New Canaan. $337 price per foot, also up 4% in the last year, leads her peer group and is only a 32% discount to New Canaan. We are seeing New Canaan shoppers looking for value choose Wilton.
Ridgefield – CONSISTENTLY PERFORMING.
Despite the 17.6% increase in average price (brought on by a few big sales) the median price has risen by 12.1% this year, tops in the peer group.
Weston – OVERPERFORMING.
Median price ($1.26m) used to be comparable with Wilton ($1.00m) but have nearly doubled in 10 years. Price per foot ($316) isn’t the reason (3rd place), so the houses must be getting larger there. Wilton, Weston and Ridgefield all average 102% of last list price.
Easton – CONSISTENTLY PERFORMING.
Median prices in Easton ($900,000) and Ridgefield ($919,000) are considerably less than Wilton and Weston, having grown about 50% in a decade.
Fairfield – CONSISTENTLY PERFORMING
Median price up 3.4% this year to $810,000; median price per foot up 10.2% to $390. The median percent of last list price has been 100% for the last 3 years, currently at 100.6% and there are only 2.2 months of inventory on the market, down -12%
Stamford – UNDERPERFORMING.
Median price has risen only 2.1% in the last year. Price per foot ($320) grew 8.5% and is least in the peer group, growing the slowest. With 215 active listings there is significantly more inventory than Norwalk (129) Fairfield (133) or Greenwich (99)
Norwalk – CONSISTENTLY PERFORMING.
Median price ($575) has risen 8.5% in the past year, better than Stamford, Fairfield or Greenwich. Median price per foot grew 9.6% this year.
Southport – CONSISTENTLY PERFORMING.
Price per foot is only $430 and median price only $1.26m, the bargain among this peer group exclusive waterfront neighborhoods, up from $802,000 and $281 a decade ago.
Riverside – VOLATILE.
Price per foot has ranged from $455 to $739 in the past 3 years, currently $647. Likewise, median price had declined to $1.615 in Jan 2020, declined further to $1.383 a year later, spiked to $2.45m a year ago, and is back down to a still staggering $1.9m. Only Belle Haven ($2.74m) has a higher median, usually $5m, down from a peak of $8.13m. in 2020.
Rowayton – UNDERPERFORMING.
$1.627m is the median price, flat since mid 2021. Price per foot rose only 2.6% and closed sales last year was only 63 of which 9 were condominiums averaging $545,000.
Old Greenwich – RECOVERING.
For the last decade Riverside and Old Greenwich traded places in the top spot in most categories. Riverside was way ahead these last 3 years but Old Greenwich has recovered to even or better. Compared to Riverside, median price is similar ($1.84 vs $1.90), price per foot higher ($738 vs $647) and percentage of last list price higher ($100.6 vs. 100.0%) Closed sales was similar (44 vs 40) and days on market was lower (28 vs 35)
Looking at the entire multiple listing service the number of new listings (627) is unchanged since last year, homes for sale (924) is down -18%, price per foot ($212) is up 16.5% and the percentage of last list price is 100.8%, up .8% in a year. The market is efficient, and buyers faced with rising prices and rising rates are showing a willingness to widen their search parameters in search of value when faced with limited inventory in a particular town. Sellers would be wise to consider all of Fairfield County the current competition. For proof note the rising number of properties sold by out-of-town agents (discussed in a previous column).
John Engel, Realtor with Douglas Elliman, was fishing with son Max in Florida. Tarpon, Mahi, Snook, Rose fish, Jacks, Triggers, Bonito and Ladyfish were caught offshore and in Everglades National Park (occasionally with fly rods) A world of difference from the bluefish and stripers off Rowayton. New Canaan offers bluegills, sunnies, large mouth and trout in the Silvermine, 5-Mile and Noroton Rivers, but still they elude me. Max likes to say, “That’s why they call it fishing, not catching, dad.”
